Fresh snow on four continents
October 1, 2009
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Tags: Argentina, australia, Austria, brrr, Cervinia, Chile, chilly, climate change, cold, Diablerets, Engelberg, Europe, Falls Creek, fantastic snow season, France, fresh snow, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, Grand Motte glacier, Hemsedal, Hintertux glacier, Hotham, Italy, Kitzsteinhorn Glacier, Ksapruin, Las Lenas, Miolltal glacier, Mt Buller, Mt Hutt, New Zealand, Norway, Passo Stelvio, Perisher, Pitztal, Portillo, record snowfall, Saas Fee, ski, skiing, snow, snowboard, spring snow, st Moritz glaciers, Stubai glacier, sweden, switzerland, temperature, temperatures, Tignes, Val Senales, Victorian Alps, Whistler, Zermatt
Fresh snow on four continents
Snowboard Club UK
30 September 2009
www.Skiinfo.co.uk reports that snow has been falling on almost every continent on earth over the past week.
Continents With Resorts Open For Skiing: 4
Countries With Resorts Open For Skiing: 9
Ski Areas Open (Approximately): 60
- Fresh snow in Europe.
- Fresh snow in New Zealand as season winds down.
- Fresh snow in Australia leads some resorts to extend season.
- Fresh snow for Whistler as Olympic season draws near.
- Fresh snow in Chile and Argentina
In France the big news was the re-opening of the Grand Motte glacier at Tignes on Saturday, which is now due to stay open through to mid-May next year. There’s currently nearly 500m of skiable vertical open between 3000 and 3456m high with the slopes open open from 8.30am to 5.30pm and reached in 7 minutes by the resort’s underground funicular. A one day adult pass is €32, children from 5 to 13 years old pay €26. There’s 20cm (eight inches) of snow on the glacier.
In Switzerland it’s still a choice between Saas Fee and neighbouring Zermatt’s glacier slopes, with Engelberg, Diablerets and st Moritz glaciers due to open in the next few weeks.
Italy still has skiing at Passo Stelvio and Val Senales with Cervinia due to re-open for weekends from 10th October and full time from 1st November.
Austria continues to have the biggest choice of glacier ski areas open anywhere. With 6 centres open. The choice includes the Hintertux glacier (15km/9 miles of runs, 55cm/2 feet of snow, 9 lifts); the Stubai glacier near Innsbruck (5 lifts, 2 slopes, 10cm/4 inches of snow); Pitztal (3 lifts operating); the Kitzsteinhorn Glacier above Ksapruin has 26cm (10 inches) of snow and 7 lifts operating ; the Miolltal glacier with 6km (4 miles) of runs to enjoy, and Solden where the “Schwarze Schneid” gondola and “Karleskogl” t-bar lift are in daily operation from 9am 1pm and the skiable terrain ending in the middle. As there are only two ski lifts in operation with three ru ns (total length 3km) and 6cm (3 inches) of snow, discounted ski passes are available.
The Kaunertal glacier currently has 7cm (3 inches) of snow and reports it will open as soon as there’s enough new snow and/or cold weather for snow making and the Dachstein glacier is currently closed.
Elsewhere in Europe, Are in Sweden and Hemsedal in Norway have both reported fresh snowfalls. Norway’s Bjorli was one of the best reporting 20cm (eight inches) of new snow yesterday.
Across the Atlantic it has been skiing in North America too, although unfortunately Timeberline ski area on Mt Hood in Oregon has been unable to re-open as planned last weekend due to a lack of snow.
Fresh snow was reported to be falling on the resort’s Palmer snowfield yesterday (September 29th) but not enough yet to re-open. “Pray for more snow,” the area urges its fans.
With the ‘100 days to go’ mark to the Vancouver Olympics imminent however, excitement at Whistler has raised yet another notch with new snow on the mountains there.
“Overnight Whistler Blackcomb received a dusting of the white stuff and there is more snow on the way with sub zero temperatures in the alpine over the next few days.” Ryan Proctor told www.skiinfo.co.uk, noting snowfall predictions of up to 27cm (11 inches) by Saturday.
In South America there’s been fresh snow in Chile. Portillo has recorded 3cm (an inch) more in the past few days and still has over 1.8m (6 feet) lying on upper slopes but is scheduled to close at the weekend. There were bigger falls for the 3 Valley resorts nearer to capital Santiagio.
There was also new snow at most of the major Argentinian ski areas, with Las Lenas still claiming the greatest snow deopths of 2.3m (nearly 8 feet) o n upper slopes.
In Australia up to 58cm (nearly 2 feet) of new snow falling on the Victorian Alps was a bit galling for resorts that were already closing, but others decided to extend the season for another week.
Mt Buller and Falls Creek resorts decided to extending their seasons due to the new snow but Hotham decided to close as scheduled last weekend, despite receiving 51cm (21 inches) of new snow over three days.
Hotham reports it had a total of 317cm (10.5 feet) of snow between 6 June and 27 September, staged 60 events including international ski races, the Hotham Snowsports School taught more than 50,000 people in lessons.
Mt Buller currently has a snow depth of 58cm with four lifts open. Bourke St and Baldy runs are currently recommended for beginners, Little Buller Spur and Wombat for the intermediates and the Wombat bowl is better than it has ever been this season for bumps and tree lined runs. Lift tickets are half price.
In New South Wales, Australia’s biggest resort, Perisher, also plans to close this weekend after receiving a further 36cm (13 inches) of snow since last Saturday, 26th September.
Perisher had a total of 321cm (10.6 feet) of snow fall between 6 June and 28 September.
Perisher’s three-year $19 million energy efficient snowmaking expansion culminated in 2009 enabling the iconic Towers Run on Mt Perisher to open in the first week of the season on a great top to bottom cover. Fresh Snow In New Zealand As Season Winds Down
There’s been fresh snow In New Zealand As the season has begun to wind down there.
There’s currently good end-of-season conditions following snow top-ups this week, with spring skiing and riding conditions.
Of the three areras operated by NZSki Ltd, Coronet Peak ski area is due to close this Sunday on October 4, with The Remarkables following a week later on October 11, and Mt Hutt on October 18.
James Coddington, NZSki Ltd CEO, said it has been a fantastic season.
“We started with the best openings in over a decade and since then a phenomenal number of people have visited our slopes. Mt Hutt opened two weeks early and both Coronet Peak and The Remarkables started the season with record snowfalls. It’s been a massive season and has shown us that recession means nothing to skiers and snowboarders when conditions are prime,” he said. “We’ve seen some of the world’s top skiers and riders passing through our ski areas, not only for the 100% Pure NZ Winter Games but also for international race training as well as various events held at our ski areas. “The world’s top competitors are happy to journey to our mountains for their off-season training. They know the facilities are world-class and they can rely on our experienced and willing Race & Events departments to supply what they need.”
The ski season is expected to continue for longer still at Mt Ruapehu where the mountain’s twin ski areas of Whakapapa and Turoa received another 10cm (four inches) of new snow in the past 24 hours, topping up bases of 1.5 – 2.3m (5-7.5 feet) respectively. “Monday October 26th is Labour Day in NZ and is the last day of the season for Whakapapa.” the resort’s Mike Smith told www.skiinfo.co.uk. “However we are looking at keeping Turoa open into “Snovember” again for another 2 – 3 weeks. We can fly (via chopper) a section of our Sun Kid carpet lift up a bit higher to keep some beginner facilities operating as well.” Over 150 (around a third male) competitors took part in yesterdays Rip Curl and K2 Bikini Downhill held simultaneously at Whakapapa and Turoa at the weekend. This is the fourth year the event has been run and the first time at both ski areas. All proceeds from event entry fees and spectator donations go to the Breast Cancer Foundation and just on $3000 was raised. Whakapapa definitely had the better conditions with blue skies and warm spring temperatures while a cool southerly and passing clouds meant Turoa competitors had to trust to the thermal properties of their swimwear.
World’s climate could cool first, warm later
September 6, 2009
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Tags: global cooling, climate change, global warming, cold, Global Freeze, weather, climate, temperature, global freezing, temperatures, cool
World’s climate could cool first, warm later
ICECAP
Sep 05, 2009
New Scientist
Forecasts of climate change are about to go seriously out of kilter. One of the world’s top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter “one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.
Latif predicted that in the next few years a natural cooling trend would dominate over warming caused by humans. The cooling would be down to cyclical changes to ocean currents and temperatures in the North Atlantic, a feature known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, he said NAO cycles were probably responsible for some of the strong global warming seen in the past three decades. “But how much? The jury is still out,” he told the conference. The NAO is now moving into a colder phase. Latif said NAO cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, agreed and linked the NAO to Indian monsoons, Atlantic hurricanes and sea ice in the Arctic. “The oceans are key to decadal natural variability,” he said.
The NAO is imversely related to the AMO and lags the AMO state as shown above. Enlarged here
Another favourite climate nostrum was upturned when Pope warned that the dramatic Arctic ice loss in recent summers was partly a product of natural cycles rather than global warming. Preliminary reports suggest there has been much less melting this year than in 2007 or 2008.
Here is the latest daily JAXA IJIS based plots for July through September 3 for 2007, 2008, 2009 for arctic ice extent. Note as the melt season draws near an end, we are running 17.4% above the record low levels of 2007, continuing the rebound started in 2008.
In candid mood, climate scientists avoided blaming nature for their faltering predictions, however. “Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts,” said Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK.
See full story here.
The positive NAO relates to more zonal flow with warmer Atlantic air into Europe and Pacific air into North America. The negative NAO leads to a more meridional pattern with cold air in Siberia often making its way west to western Europe and Cold arctic air over North America trapped over the eastern and central parts of the continent. Enlarged here
Note: MIT’s Dr. Lindzen commented “Lateef is actually one of the better ocean modelers. However, he used to be all over the German media proclaiming that models were perfect, and should be used to determine policy. When someone responded that since the models were perfect, there was no need for more funding, Lateef developed a deeper appreciation for the model shortcomings. I suppose that there is a lesson here someplace.”
Global Warming or Global Cooling? A New Trend in Climate Alarmism
July 25, 2009
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Tags: Argo, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, cold, cool, cooling trend, Dr David Evans, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, Land thermometers, Ocean temperatures, Penny Wong, Senator Steve Fielding, temepratures, temperature, weather
Global Warming or Global Cooling? A New Trend in Climate Alarmism
By Dr David Evans
Global Research, July 23, 2009
Senator Steve Fielding recently asked the [Australian] Climate Change Minister Penny Wong why human emissions can be blamed for global warming, given that air temperatures peaked in 1998 and began a cooling trend in 2002, while carbon dioxide levels have risen five per cent since 1998. I was one of the four independent scientists Fielding chose to accompany him to visit the Minister.
The Minister’s advisor essentially told us that short term trends in air temperatures are irrelevant, and to instead focus on the rapidly rising ocean heat content:
Figure 1: Wong’s graph.
This is the new trend in climate alarmism. Previously the measure of global warming has always been air temperatures. But all the satellite data says air temperatures have been in a mild down trend starting 2002. The land thermometers preferred by the alarmists showed warming until 2006, but even they show a cooling trend developing since then.
(Land thermometers cannot be trusted because, even in the USA, 89 per cent of them fail siting guidelines that they be more than 30 meters from an artificial heating or radiating/reflecting heat source, and their data is forever being “corrected”.)
Ocean temperatures were not properly measured until mid-2003, when the Argo network became operational.
Before Argo, ocean temperatures were measured with bathythermographs (XBTs)—expendable probes fired into the water by a gun from ships along the main commercial shipping lanes. Geographical coverage of the world’s oceans was poor, XBTs do not go as deep as Argo, and their data is much less accurate.
The Argo network consists of over 3,000 small, drifting oceanic robot probes, floating around all of the world’s oceans. Argo floats duck dive down to 1,000 meters or more, record temperatures, then come up and radio back the results.
Figure 2: The Argo network has floats measuring temperature in all of the oceans.
Figure 3: An Argo float descends to cruising depth, drifts for a few days, ascends while recording temperatures, then transmits data to satellites.
The Argo data shows that the oceans have been in a slight cooling trend since at least late-2004, and possibly as far back as mid-2003 when the Argo network started:
Figure 4: Ocean heat content from mid 2003 to early 2008, as measured by the Argo network, for 0-700 metres. There is seasonal fluctuation because the oceans are mainly in the southern hemisphere, but the trend can be judged from the highs and lows. (This shows the recalibrated data, after the data from certain instruments with a cool bias were removed. Initial Argo results showing strong cooling.)
Josh Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in charge of the Argo data, said in March 2008: “There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant”.
The ocean data that the alarmists are relying on to establish their warming trends is all pre-Argo, from XBTs. Now that we are measuring ocean temperatures properly, the warming trend has disappeared. And by coincidence, it disappeared just when we started measuring it properly!
Notice how the Minister’s graph above shows rising ocean heat content for 2004 through 2006, but the Argo data shows a cooling trend? There is a problem here.
The Argo data is extraordinarily difficult to find on the Internet. There is no official or unofficial website showing the latest ocean temperature. Basically the only way to get the data is to ask Josh Willis (above). The graph above come from Craig Loehle, who got the data from Willis, analysed it, and put the results in a peer reviewed paper available on the Internet. Given the importance of the ocean temperatures, don’t you think this is extraordinary?
If the Argo data showed a warming trend, don’t you suppose it would be publicised endlessly?
So what’s going on? Our best data, from satellites and Argo, says that both the air and oceans have not warmed for at least five years now. In the short term, some cooling force is overpowering the warming due to human emissions.
Let’s look at the long-term trend. The medieval warm period around AD 1000 – 1300 was a little warmer than now: crops grew in Greenland, and there were many signs around the world of extra warmth during that period. That gave way to the bitter cold of the little ice age from 1400 to 1800: animals in Europe died from cold even inside barns, and the River Thames in London would freeze over every winter (it last froze over in 1804).
Global air temperatures have been rising at a steady trend rate of 0.5°C per century since about 1750, as the world recovers from the little ice age:
Figure 5: Reasonable global air temperature data only goes back to 1880. This analysis into a steady rising trend and oscillations is simply an empirical observation, by Dr Syun Akasofu. The IPCC predictions are their widely publicised 2001 predictions.
On top of that trend are oscillations that last about 30 years in each direction:
1882 – 1910 Cooling
1910 – 1944 Warming
1944 – 1975 Cooling
1975 – 2001 Warming
In 2009 we are where the green arrow points in Figure 5, with temperature levelling off and beginning to fall slightly. The pattern suggests that the world has entered a period of cooling until about 2030.
The long-term trend suggests that the last warming period (1975-2001) was like the previous one (1910-1944), and that once the effects of the little ice age have finally passed, the temperature will get back to where it was in the medieval warm period (which is also where it was during the Roman Optimum, and in the Holocene optimum before that).
What about human influence? Human emissions of CO2 were virtually non-existent before 1850, and were insignificant compared to current levels until after 1945.
It is worth bearing in mind that there is no actual evidence that carbon dioxide was the main cause of recent warming—it’s only an assumption, and the calculations of future temperature rises derive most of their warming from an assumed water vapor feedback for which there is only counter-evidence.
Dr David Evans worked for the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 to 2005, building the carbon accounting model that Australia uses to track carbon in its biosphere for the purposes of the Kyoto Protocol. He is a mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD from Stanford University. Global Research Articles by David Evans
June Global Temperatures Drop Again, 8 Year Downtrend Continues
July 7, 2009
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Tags: al gore, AMSU, An Inconvenient Truth, australia, Boston, Brazil, brrr, California, Canada, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold June, cold weather, coldest June, global cooling, Global Freeze, global temperature decline, global temperatures, global warming, Joe Romm, June Global Temperatures, June monthly anomaly, La Nina, Maine, Minnesotans for Global Warming, Mt. Lyford Ski Area, NASA's Aqua satellite, New England, New York, New Zealand, North Dakota, Palm Springs, Phoenix, ski, snow, temperature, temperatures, United States, unusual cold, weather
June Global Temperatures Drop Again, 8 Year Downtrend Continues
By Joseph D’Aleo
ICECAP
Dr. Roy Spencer announced on his blog that June’s anomaly globally using the Aqua satellite dropped to 0.001C. This continues the downtrend that started after 2001.
See larger image here.
Roy notes: June 2009 saw another – albeit small drop in the global average temperature anomaly, from +0.04 deg. C in May to 0.00 deg. C in June, with the coolest anomaly (-0.03 deg. C) in the Southern Hemisphere. The decadal temperature trend for the period December 1978 through June 2009 is now at +0.12 deg. C per decade.
NOTE: A reminder for those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here:
(1) Only use channel 5 (“ch05″), which is what we use for the lower troposphere and middle troposphere temperature products.
(2) Compare the current month to the same calendar month from the previous year (which is already plotted for you).
(3) The progress of daily temperatures (the current month versus the same calendar month from one year ago) should only be used as a rough guide for how the current month is shaping up because they come from the AMSU instrument on the NOAA-15 satellite, which has a substantial diurnal drift in the local time of the orbit. Our ‘official’ results presented above, in contrast, are from AMSU on NASA’s Aqua satellite, which carries extra fuel to keep it in a stable orbit. Therefore, there is no diurnal drift adjustment needed in our official product.
Icecap Notes: It was the 15th coldest June in the 31 years of satellite record keeping since 1979. The first half of the month was extremely cold and even snowy in south Central Canada and the northern United States. In snowed in North Dakota and in California and northern New England in early June. It was also unusually cold in the southwest – well below the normal (often 10-20 degrees) in places like Palm Springs, CA. In general, the desert southwest was unusually mild. Phoenix had 15 straight days with highs below 100F, the first time in June since 1913.
In contrast feeding off the dry soils from two years of La Nina, June, especially the second half was very hot in the southern plains and the heat expanded north and east a bit after mid-month before being suppressed again by months end.
In the northeast, the month was unusually cold, cloudy and wet. In Boston it was 4.7F below normal in a tie for 6th coldest June (with 1982) in 138 years of record keeping, all the other years were before 1916. It was just short of two standard deviations colder then normal. The NWS spot checked the average maximum temp at Boston for the month and it appears this is the second coldest average high temp since 1872. 1903 is the record. A trace or more of rain fell on 22 days of the month. Measurable (0.01 inches or more) occurred on 16 days just short of the record of 18 set in 1942.
At Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA, just southwest of Boston, the month of June had between 26 and 27% of the possible bright sunshine. Normal for June is 55% and the gloomiest June in 1903 had just 25% of the possible sunshine. Second place had been June, 1998, with 36%. So, this month has taken over 2nd place, not an enviable distinction for vacationers. So little sunshine and so much cool temperatures that we have heard some reports that swamp maples in parts of Maine showing fall colors!
New York City’s Central Park was also cool, cloudy and wet. The month averaged 3.7F below normal and tied with 1897 as the 8th coldest since 1869 (151 years). It rained in 23 days of the month and ended up as the second wettest June ever falling short of 1927. Recall Joe Romm of Climate Progress had blamed the rains at the US Open on global warming and chuckled the heat waves would make the climate debate in DC all that much more exciting.
See larger image here.
The preliminary June monthly anomaly is shown below (CPC).
See larger image here.
In other parts of the world, Southern Brazil had one the coldest June’s in decades and New Zealand has had unusual cold and snow again this year after a banner year there and in the mountains of southern Australia last year. The Mt. Lyford Ski Area is experiencing some of the best early snow it�s ever seen. With a current 135cm average base on the slopes along with 50cm of snow fall earlier this week and an additional 5cm of windblown powder last night, ski area operator Hamish Simpson says there are “plenty of fresh tracks to be had”. “We have got the best early season snow in years,” said Mr Simpson. “Even better than last year – wall to wall white! The Terako rope has 100% cover with plenty of fresh tracks to be had.” Photo Mt. Dobson.
Finally from our Friends at Minnesotans for Global Warming this chart showing how since the release of the Al Gore movie An Inconvenient Truth, global temperatures declined 0.74F.
Argentine glacier advances despite global warming
June 15, 2009
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Tags: advancing glacier, Andean snowmelt, Argentina, Buenos Aires, climate change, expanding glaciers, glacier, glaciers, global cooling, global warming, icebergs, Perito Moreno
Argentine glacier advances despite global warming
By JEANNETTE NEUMANN, Associated Press
June 15, 2009
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina – Argentina’s Perito Moreno glacier is one of only a few ice fields worldwide that have withstood rising global temperatures.
Nourished by Andean snowmelt, the glacier constantly grows even as it spawns icebergs the size of apartment buildings into a frigid lake, maintaining a nearly perfect equilibrium since measurements began more than a century ago.
“We’re not sure why this happens,” said Andres Rivera, a glacialist with the Center for Scientific Studies in Valdivia, Chile. “But not all glaciers respond equally to climate change.”
Viewed at a safe distance on cruise boats or the wooden observation deck just beyond the glacier’s leading edge, Perito Moreno’s jagged surface radiates a brilliant white in the strong Patagonian sun. Submerged sections glow deep blue.
And when the wind blows in a cloud cover, the 3-mile-wide (5 kilometer) glacier seems to glow from within as the surrounding mountains and water turn a meditative gray.
Every few years, Perito Moreno expands enough to touch a point of land across Lake Argentina, cutting the nation’s largest freshwater lake in half and forming an ice dam as it presses against the shore.
The water on one side of the dam surges against the glacier, up to 200 feet (60 meters) above lake level, until it breaks the ice wall with a thunderous crash, drowning the applause of hundreds of tourists.
“It’s like a massive building falling all of the sudden,” said park ranger Javier D’Angelo, who experienced the rupture in 2008 and 1998.
The rupture is a reminder that while Perito Moreno appears to be a vast, 19-mile-long (30 kilometer) frozen river, it’s a dynamic icescape that moves and cracks unexpectedly.
“The glacier has a lot of life,” said Luli Gavina, who leads mini-treks across the glacier’s snow fields.
Ocean Cooling Falsifies Global Warming Hypothesis
May 11, 2009
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Tags: chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cooling, global cooling, Global Freeze, global warming, ocean cooling, oceans, temperature, temperatures, weather
Ocean Cooling Falsifies Global Warming Hypothesis
Jennifer Marohasy
11 May 2009
ACCORDING to the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis while surface 
temperatures may vary from year to year, as long as we spew out carbon dioxide there will be a gradual accumulation of heat in the climate system eventually resulting in a climate crisis.
In 2005, NASA boss James Hansen stated in an article in the journal ‘Science’ that confirmation of the planetary energy imbalance can be obtained by measuring the heat content of the oceans which are the principal reservoir for excess energy.
A problem for the AGW hypothesis now, is that the oceans have been cooling. Indeed there is no known mechanism to account for what some describe as vast amounts of missing heat, suggesting that contrary to the AGW hypothesis, heat is not accumulating in the climate system and there is no longer any radiative imbalance from all the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
According to William DiPuccio, in a guest post at the blog ‘Climate Science’, this not only demonstrates that the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models are failing to accurately predict global warming, but also presents a serious challenge to the integrity of the AGW hypothesis.
Mr DiPuccio concludes “When all is said and done, if the climate system is not accumulating heat, the hypothesis is invalid.”
***********************
Notes and Links
Have Changes In Ocean Heat Falsified The Global Warming Hypothesis? – A Guest Weblog by William DiPuccio
http://climatesci.org/2009/05/05/have-changes-in-ocean-heat-falsified-the-global-warming-hypothesis-a-guest-weblog-by-william-dipuccio/
The graph by Mr DiPuccio shows the increasing deficit of upper ocean heat from 2003 through 2008 based on GISS projections. Actual heat accumulation is plotted from observed data (using ARGO) and shows the overall linear trend (after Willis and Loehle). Seasonal fluctuations and error bars are not shown.
Mr DiPuccio notes in the above article that: Heat is not the same as temperature. Two litres of boiling water contain twice as much heat as one litre of boiling water even though the water in both vessels is the same temperature. A larger container has more thermal mass which means it takes longer to heat and cool.
William DiPuccio was a weather forecaster for the U.S. Navy, and a Meteorological/Radiosonde Technician for the National Weather Service. More recently, he served as head of the science department for St. Nicholas Orthodox School in Akron, Ohio (closed in 2006). He continues to write science curriculum, publish articles, and conduct science camps.
Previous blog post on this issue:
The Ocean Really is Cooling
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/03/the-ocean-really-is-cooling/
RSS MSU: 2nd coldest April since 1999
May 4, 2009
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Tags: brrr, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold April, cold weather, global cooling, Global Freeze, global temperature, global warming, RSS MSU, temperature, temperatures, weather
RSS MSU: 2nd coldest April since 1999
RSS MSU data for April 2009 are out. The global temperature anomaly, 0.202 °C, is 0.008 °C warmer than the figure from March 2009.
RSS MSU global temperature (anomaly) in the lower troposphere: first 100 months of the century (Jan 2001 – Apr 2009). In this period, linear regression gives us a cooling trend of -1.517 °C per century.
It makes April 2009 the second coldest April since 1999, after April 2008 that was even colder, mostly due to the La Nina conditions. Right now, all temperature indicators say that we experience ENSO-neutral conditions (neither boy, nor girl) while the global sea ice area remains substantially above the normal.
April 2009 was also a whopping 0.65 °C cooler than April 1998: the latter month’s anomaly, 0.858 °C, remains the hottest reading on their record: the El Nino of the century is to be blamed.
The mid troposphere saw a nearly trivial anomaly of 0.037 °C in April which is 0.022 °C cooler than the number from March 2009 and the second coldest April figure since 1997 (after 2008).
The Ocean Really is Cooling
March 21, 2009
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Tags: chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cooling ocean, Craig Loehle, global cooling, Global Freeze, global warming, ocean cooling, temperature, temperatures, weather
The Ocean Really is Cooling
THERE are 3,000 free-drifting buoys in the world’s ocean; first deployed in the year 2000 they allow continuous monitoring of the temperature, salinity, and velocity of the upper ocean.
There has though been some difficulty in interpreting the data from these buoys. Initial signs of cooling were dismissed as due to technical errors subsequently corrected based on a small sample of the 3,000 buoys known as profiling floats.
Craig Loehle has analysed the data from only the profiling floats for ocean heat content from 2003 to 2008. In a paper recently published in the journal Energy and Environment he has concluded that there has been ocean cooling over this period.
This graphic is from figure 1 of the technical paper and shows the decline in ocean heat content (x1022J) smoothed with a 1-2-1 filter.
Dr Loehle’s findings are consistent with satellite and surface instrumental records that do not showing a warming trend over recent years.
*************************
Notes
Craig Loehle is a senior scientist at the Illinois-based ‘National Council for Air and Stream Improvement’.
Cooling of the global ocean since 2003. Craig Loehle, 2009. Energy and Environment. Volume 20.
Argo (free-floating buoys) Homepage http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/
Apologies to Josh Willis: Correcting Global Cooling (Part 3) http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/11/apologies-to-josh-willis-correcting-ocean-cooling-part-3/
Correcting Ocean Cooling: NASAChanges Data to Fit the Models Adjusts Data from Buoys http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/11/correcting-ocean-cooling-nasa-changes-data-to-fit-the-models/
Global Warming’s Missing Heat http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/03/global-warmings-missing-heat/
Plane Crash Crew Saw Ice On Wings
February 14, 2009
Filed under Uncategorized
Tags: chilly, climate, climate change, cold, global cooling, Global Freeze, global warming, ice, temperature, temperatures, weather, winter
Plane Crash Crew Saw Ice On Wings
10:14pm UK, Saturday February 14, 2009
Investigators say ice may have have contributed to the crash of a US plane that landed a house in New York state, killing 50 people.
Investigators continue search for plane crash clues
Recordings on black box flight recorders recovered from the scene revealed pilots had been concerned about ice building up on the wings as they approached.
“The crew discussed significant ice build-up – ice on the windshield and leading edges of the wings,” said investigator Steven Chealander of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).
“Significant ice build-up is an aerodynamic impediment. Airplanes are built with wings that are shaped a certain way and ice can change the shape.”
The black boxes also showed the crew had been concerned about low visibility due to snow and mist.
Tragic events such as these remind us of the fragility of life, and the value of every single day.
US President Barack Obama
The plane was reported to have nose-dived into the building but investigators now say the plane landed flat and facing in the opposite direction to the airport where it had been cleared to land.
NTSB officials, teams of police and special agents moved in to investigate after firefighters spent hours dousing walls of flames that had engulfed the area, outside Buffalo.
Continental Flight 3407, on a flight from Newark in New Jersey to Buffalo Niagara International airport plummeted onto the house in Clarence Center late on Thursday local time.
The Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 turboprop plane exploded on impact around 10.20pm (3.20am GMT) about five minutes before it was due to land, carrying 49 passengers and crew.
One person in the house it hit also died, although a woman and her daughter escaped from the rubble of their home with only minor injuries.
Buffalo in mourning
President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama have said they are “deeply saddened” by the incident.
“Tragic events such as these remind us of the fragility of life, and the value of every single day,” Mr Obama said.
See more pictures of the crash scene in our gallery.
Among the victims was Beverly Eckert, whose husband was killed in the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York, and Alison Des Forges, an expert on Rwanda and senior advisor to Human Rights Watch.
Ms Eckert met Mr Obama at the White House earlier this month along with other relatives of those killed in the attacks, was traveling to Buffalo to mark what would have been her husband Sean Rooney’s 58th birthday.
These Cold-Weather Stocks Are Hot
January 23, 2009
Filed under Uncategorized
Tags: chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold weather stocks, global cooling, Global Freeze, global warming, temperature, temperatures, weather, winter
These Cold-Weather Stocks Are Hot
As the temperature across a large portion of the U.S. turns from cold to colder, some stocks start to warm up and benefit from the brutal shift in weather.
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO): Last winter, in the company’s first-quarter 2008 conference call, CEO Jim Wright said the following regarding last winter’s weather: “We generated stronger-than-expected sales during the first quarter. Our team executed well at the store level and took advantage of the cold weather opportunity.”
He also said: “We were deliberate in our markdown strategy on winter-related merchandise, which produced a solid sell-through” He said the trend should continue through the cold weather.
Tractor Supply operates retail farm and ranch stores in the U.S. The company offers various products for the agricultural and rural lifestyles, including hardware, power equipment, trucks, towing products and footwear. Currently, it operates 834 stores in 44 states, with an average store size of 16,600 square feet.
For the third quarter of 2008, Tractor Supply earned 53 cents per share vs. 44 cents per share just a year ago, equating to a 20% change in net EPS. While the market is still waiting for Tractor Supply’s fourth-quarter earnings and full-year 2008 numbers, Tractor Supply has enjoyed a 16.4% compounded annual growth rate from 2003 to 2007, as sales went from $1.5 billion to $2.7 billion during that time span. Net income grew from $56 million to $96 million, as earnings per share grew from $1.38 to $2.40 in the same time span.
Blair, a mid-sized investment bank, came out with cautious note regarding Tractor Supply that cited recent economic deflation, particularly in the retail consumer space, as a possible point of concern. Even so, in October, Tractor Supply forecasted earnings for the rest of 2008 to be $2.49 to $2.55, which was toward the lower end of Wall Street’s estimates of $2.54 per share.
Columbia Sportswear (COLM): The Oregon-based retailer designs and sells outdoor apparel, including outerwear, sportswear and footwear. Columbia Sports has beaten Wall Street’s estimates in six out of the last seven quarters, and the stock sports a forward P/E of 12.43, PEG of 1.22 and yield of 1.4%. For a retailer, it sports a fairly healthy balance sheet, with profitability margins of 9.1% and operating margins of 12.2%. Unlike the debt-riddled Jones Apparel (JYN) and Liz Claiborne (LIZ), Columbia has $145 million dollars in cash ($4.30 per share), with zero debt, which means almost 10% of the company is in cash.
Timberland (TBL): When it’s cold outside, people buy more boots, and Timberland could be the sole beneficiary here. The company, which has negatively restated earnings estimates several times over the last few years, could see a relative bid to its equity price as the weather turns from cold to colder. It has a relatively clean balance sheet, with $63 million in cash ($1.10 per share) and zero debt, which means almost 10% of the company is in cash. With Nike’s (NKE) unsuccessful attempts to penetrate the boot market, Timberland, near its 52-week low, seems like a possible takeover candidate for Nike.
Avon Products (AVP): The winter can wreak particular havoc on one’s face as the cold, the wind and overheated buildings suck the moisture from the air, affecting drying delicate tissue. A slightly unconventional name here, Avon owns Burt’s Bees, which caters directly to this sort of problem.
