October 2009 3rd Coldest for US in 115 Years, What about the Upcoming Winter?
November 7, 2009
Filed under USA
Tags: global cooling, climate change, global warming, snow, cold, Global Freeze, weather, climate, chilly, temperature, USA, record cold, snowfall, global freezing, temperatures, brrr, cold record, PDO, El Niño, cold October, ICECAP, Joseph D’Aleo, Southern Oscillation Index, QBO, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO
October 2009 3rd Coldest for US in 115 Years, What about the Upcoming Winter?
By Joseph D’Aleo
ICECAP, November 6, 2009
NCDC has compiled the October temperatures and it ended up the 3rd coldest in 115 years. As we have shown it was cold over almost all the lower 48. Indeed only Florida came in above normal. There is no press release out yet but it should be interesting.
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October with a mean of 50.8F was behind only 1976 with 50.7F and 1925 with 49.4F.
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Also the University of Alabama global temperature is out and it is down this month. Hadley came in late for September but it was down. The trends since 2002 continue down for both even as CO2 rise.
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The cold came just a few months after a cold July where 6 states were coldest in 115 years, four 2nd coldest and two 3rd coldest.
US was not alone. In the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand had the coldest October in 64 years. Hat tip: Rod Van Koughnet, geophysicist and skeptic.
Temperatures may pop globally with the second surge in El Nino the next two months. A warm pool (depression of the thermocline) induced by a westerly wind burst last month with a negative Southern Oscillation Index has been pressing east. A prior surge had produced a first peak in El Nino in July. It weakened after with a cooling of the water in the eastern Pacific as the first warm surge was mixed out and cold water upwelling increased off South America. The same thing will happen after the El Nino comes to a second larger peak in early December. Typically in cold PDO phases, El Ninos, are truncated – that is they end early and tend to be weaker (up to moderate strength). See the similarity to other years in this post here.
When you look at other years in cold PDO with a quiet sun and transition to an easterly QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) you get a cold winter especially in the east.
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A stratospheric warming is more likely in these conditions, favoring high latitude blocking and cold air intrusions. We have seen much more blocking this year in part due to El Nino, in part to low solar and in part to high latitude volcanoes (Redoubt and Sarychev). See how a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) correlate with winter temperatures.
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Big east coast storms for DC, New York or Boston are very likely in westerly QBO winters but not easterly. Since we will be transitioning from west to east, one might think we may still manage a few decent coastal storms and maybe a blockbuster, if the cold comes early and the QBO is slow to flip. Often in easterly winters, the snow is actually heavier south (like Norfolk).
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A negative NAO though is favorable for east coast storms and snow. This graph is for Boston, New York and DC are similar.
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See more here.
New Zealand: Coldest October in over 25 years
November 2, 2009
Filed under New Zealand
Tags: brrr, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold record, Cold spring, coldest October, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, Hawke's Bay, heavy snow, New Zealand, Niwa, record cold, temperature, temperatures, unseasonal cold, unusual cold, unusually cold, weather
Coldest October in over 25 years
The New Zealand Herald, 4:00AM Monday Nov 02, 2009
New Zealanders have just shivered through the coldest October in more than 25 years – not long after they enjoyed the warmest August on record, says a climate analyst.
After a winter of wild swings, temperatures are expected to be closer to normal in November, December and January.
The October mean temperature of 10.7C was 1.4C below average making it the coldest October since 1982, climate scientist Jim Salinger has calculated.
The heavy snow that trapped motorists and surprised Hawkes Bay farmers on October 4 and 5 was the latest spring snow of its kind to hit the North Island since 1951, he said.
Dr Salinger, a former Niwa scientist who now works as a climate expert for farmers’ pay channel Country 99 TV, said October was very wet in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay – with each recording twice the usual rainfall for the month – while the South Island’s West Coast got only half of its usual dose of rain.
Niwa’s climate outlook for the next three months is for normal temperatures for the North Island and Nelson/Marlborough, and average or below average temperatures for the rest of the South Island.
The summary said an El Nino in the equatorial Pacific was expected to stay there throughout the summer but would have little impact on New Zealand.
Most of the country should get the normal amount of rain for the season, but the north and east of the North Island may get a little less than usual.
Its winter summary noted that the season was one of extreme temperature swings.
The topsy-turvy weather began in May, which was the coldest recorded in many parts of New Zealand, with temperatures more like the beginning of winter than the end of spring.
June was also colder than normal before temperatures returned closer to normal in July.
Then came August – the warmest New Zealand has seen since temperatures were first recorded 155 years ago – with an average temperature almost 2C warmer than usual at a spring-like 10.4C.
Sydney’s Coldest October in 17 years
November 1, 2009
Filed under Sydney, australia
Tags: australia, brrr, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold October, cold record, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, New South Wales, NSW, record cold, Sydney, temperature, temperatures, unseasonal cold, unusual cold, unusually cold, weather
Sydney’s Coldest October in 17 years
Martin Palmer, Saturday October 31, 2009 – 15:28 EDT
Weatherzone
Cloud, rain and brisk southeasterly winds, all combined this month to deliver a fairly drab October.
It was a promising start, as Sydney soared to 33 degrees on Thursday 1st. This was blown apart on Saturday 3rd when a strong front swept into the southeast. A top of just 15 degrees ensued.
A slow recovery was made into the middle of the month as a high pressure system took control.
Sunny skies and 35 degrees was the order of the day on Wednesday 21st, but didn’t last for the weekend, where we fell below average, again.
The last third of the month saw Sydney plagued by cool southeast winds, heavy rainfall and gloomy skies.
Based on maximum temperatures and averaging 21.4 degrees, we have now seen our coldest October in 17 years.
Overnight, minimums were mild for October. With plenty of insulating cloud about, the average was 14.1 degrees, half a degree above the mean. But, still our coldest nights since 2003!
Some October temperature facts for Sydney:
- The mean maximum is 22 degrees.
- The mean minimum is 14 degrees.
- The highest temperature recorded was 38.2 degrees (2004)
- The lowest recorded temperature was 5.7 degrees (1918)
All-time October low recorded in Bavaria
October 23, 2009
Filed under Europe, Germany
Tags: Bavaria, Bavarian Alps, Berchtesgaden national park, bitter cold, brrr, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold October, cold record, cold snap, cool, Europe, Funtensee, Germany, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, lowest ever October temperature, Meteomedia weather service, record cold, record cold October, snow, temperature, temperatures, unseasonal cold, unusual cold, unusually cold, weather
All-time October low recorded in Bavaria
The Local, Published: 20 Oct 09 16:36 CET
Meteorologists on Tuesday morning recorded the lowest ever October temperature in Germany, as the mercury dipped to a chilly -24.3 degrees Celsius in Bavaria’s Berchtesgaden national park.
The bitter cold was measured at the Funtensee, a notoriously frosty lake high in the Bavarian Alps. Jörg Kachelmann from the Meteomedia weather service said conditions overnight were ideal “with brisk cold air flowing in over freshly fallen powder snow.”
Kachelmann said the alpine sinkhole could register temperatures as low as -55 degrees in the middle of winter by similar conditions, making it in his estimation the coldest spot in Germany. But he said the Funtensee was likely to be a balmy 35 degrees warmer by Wednesday, as the Alpine Föhn wind is expected to push temperatures up to 10 Celsius.
The rest of the country will also warm up slightly midweek, according to the DWD German Weather Service. The Föhn will heat up the southern edge of Germany to 17 degrees, while the eastern half will be lucky to see seven degrees. Most regions will be cloudy, but are likely to stay dry. Overnight lows will drop to six degrees in the northwest to zero in the southeast.
The northern and eastern Germany will remain dry on Thursday, but will showers threaten the southwest. Highs will range between nine and 17 degrees.
Chilly high of 39 degrees breaks local record
October 17, 2009
Filed under Minnesota, USA
Tags: brrr, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, temperature, temperatures, weather
Chilly high of 39 degrees breaks local record
SC Times • October 17, 2009
Thursday’s high of 39 degrees set a St. Cloud record for the coldest high temperature on Oct. 15.
The previous coldest high was 40 degrees in 1940.
Temperatures have been cool in October with the average temperature at 46 degrees so far this month. Normal is 61 degrees.
Thursday’s record was the fifth benchmark to enter the record books this month. The Oct. 10 high of 34 degrees was also a record cold high temperature for the date. The 28-degree mean temperature that day was the coldest recorded in St. Cloud, and the 33-degree mean temperature on Oct. 11 tied the record. The 0.9 of an inch of snow measured Oct. 10 was a record for that date.
Through Friday morning, 4.20 inches of precipitation had been recorded this month at St. Cloud Regional Airport, almost double the entire month’s normal precipitation of 2.24 inches, according to St. Cloud State University meteorologist Bob Weisman’s records.
Another two-tenths of an inch, which forecasters said was possible overnight, would push this month into the 10 wettest Octobers on record in St. Cloud.
Today and Sunday will bring some sun and warmer days.
Today’s forecast high is 46 and Sunday’s forecast high is 56.
Fury at rise in winter deaths
October 17, 2009
Filed under UK, scotland
Tags: brrr, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, Dumfries, Galloway, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, scotland, temperature, temperatures, UK, weather, winter deaths
Fury at rise in winter deaths
Oct 16 2009
by Julie Watt, Dumfries Standard Friday
THE NUMBER of winter deaths in Dumfries and Galloway has hit an all time high.
From December 2008 to March 2009 a total of 140 people in the region died – 50 more than the previous year.
And campaigners for the elderly are warning that, unless action is taken now, the situation could get even worse this winter.
Carole Williams, from the region’s Seniors’ Forum, has slammed the figures and called on politicians to help protect vulnerable people in the community.
She said: “All our politicians should be ashamed of these figures. They are a shocking indictment on what seems to be an unwillingness or inability on the part of both the Scottish and Westminster governments to face up to the facts.
Struggling
“Much of the older population is struggling to pay essential bills.
“We acknowledge that other factors such as flu and health inequalities need to be taken into account. However, huge price increases for gas, electricity and solid fuels over the last year have had a disproportionate impact on older peoples’ cost of living.”
The sharp rise in the number of deaths has also concerned Dumfriesshire MP David Mundell and he is hoping that a review of the winter allowance scheme will help.
He said: “I believe we need to have more localised information used to decide cold weather payments.
“I contacted the Department for Work and Pensions earlier in the year calling for a review of weather stations used locally to ensure payments are being made on the basis of local weather conditions and not conditions miles away.
“I have received an undertaking from the Minister that this will be done in time for this winter’s scheme.”
The Seniors’ Forum has warned that they will be monitoring the situation closely.
Carole added: “Addressing any contributing factors, be it health, income, fuel prices, means-tested benefits, or means-tested central heating programmes, should be cross-party priorities. The senior electorate will be looking for solutions and will be looking for them soon.”
Margaret Syme, aged 85, has been a member of the forum for many years.
The Lochfoot pensioner, said: “Many elderly people in Dumfries and Galloway are in a dreadful situation when the winter months come along. I know for a fact that there are a lot of old people who will sit in cold houses because they cannot afford to turn their heating on. It is a terrible shame.”
The health board is hoping that further deaths will be avoided if there is a better uptake of the flu jab this year.
A spokesman said: “NHS Dumfries and Galloway acknowledges that last winter there was a rise in the winter deaths figure.
“Many of these additional winter deaths can be due to respiratory and circulatory diseases and the cold winter weather can make those with chronic conditions even more vulnerable.
“We would urge everyone who is entitled to the flu vaccination to make sure they get the flu jab.”
TWIN CITIES: First Two Weeks of October Have Been Coldest Ever
October 17, 2009
Filed under Minnesota, USA
Tags: brrr, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold October, cold record, Coldest Ever, coldest on record, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, Minnesota, National Weather Service, record cold, record snow, record snowfall, snow, snowfall, temperature, temperatures, Twin Cities, unusual cold, unusually cold, USA, weather
Chill Down: It’s A Record
First Two Weeks of October Have Been Coldest Ever
FOX, Published : Friday, 16 Oct 2009, 11:06 AM CDT
TWIN CITIES, Minn – It isn’t your imagination. It’s been one cold month so far.
The National Weather Service Friday said that the first two weeks of October were the coldest on record in the Twin Cities. Ever.
The normal average high temperature for the first 15 days of this month is 63 degrees; however, we managed just an average of 47 degrees this year. That shattered the previous record of 52 degrees set all the way back in 1875. That’s right; the 19th Century…when the President of the United States was Ulysses S. Grant.
More recently, the chilliest start to the month was an average of 54 degrees back in 1979.
The Twin Cities has set a record in the snow department as well. Our three snowfalls the past week have made this the 7th snowiest October, and that’s with 15 more days to go in the month. We have a long way to go before hit the record, though. That happened on the first day of the infamous Halloween Blizzard, when we got 8.2 inches of snow on October 31st, 1991.
We’re not the only ones shivering, obviously. St. Cloud and Eau Claire, Wisconsin are sharing our honors for a record cold month so far.
This record breaking chill isn’t necessarily a sign of things to come; however. Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a winter outlook that showed a pretty good chance we’ll have a warmer than normal December through February.
Earliest snow on record blankets Poconos, Penn State
October 17, 2009
Filed under Pennsylvania, USA
Tags: brrr, Center Hall Mountain, chilly, climate, cold, cool, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, heavy snow, historically early snow, National Weather Service, October snow, October snowfall, Penn State, Pennsylvania, Poconos, record snow, record snowfall, snow storm, State College, temperature, temperatures, USA, weather
Earliest snow on record blankets Poconos, Penn State
By Peter Mucha
Inquirer Staff Writer
Snow showed up historically early – and with a vengeance in northern Pennsylvania, from the Poconos past State College, Pa.
Trees and powerlines were down all over State College this morning because of a heavy, wet snow that started accumulating yesterday, according to meteoroogist Aaron Tyburski of the National Weather Service office there.
Five to six inches was on the ground in some of the higher elevations in north-central Pennsylvania, and nine inches was measured this morning on Center Hall Mountain, a few miles northeast of Penn State’s main campus, he said.
In the Poconos, 6.1 inches was measured on Mount Pocono at 8:30 this morning. Just to the north, Tobyhanna had 4.3 inches as of 7 a.m.
A second storm system on the way could boost the totals.
“We may see another one or two inches tomorrow,” Tyburski said this morning.
Penn State even canceled tailgating at its home game tomorrow against the University of Minnesota. Fans can’t park on the grass lots because of the snow, so all the spaces on the paved lots will be needed for vehicles, the school announced today.
Areas south of the Poconos – even Allentown – just got rain.
Because the trees were still covered with leaves when the storm hit State College, walkers had to worry about falling limbs this morning, Tyburski said.
“You can actually hear them snapping as you walk underneath them,” he said.
The snowfall hit three days before the previous record there, set on Oct. 18, 1901, when only one-tenth of an inch fell.
Surprisingly, the city of Philadelphia has seen earlier snowfalls – a trace on Oct. 9 in 1895, and 2.1 inches on Oct. 10 in 1979.
The storm system also brought some flooding to the counties along the Jersey Shore, with more expected tomorrow.
Turkey Day was a record-breaking chiller
October 17, 2009
Filed under Canada, Okanagan Valley
Tags: brrr, Canada, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold October, cold record, cold snap, cold temperatures, coldest on record, coldest Thanksgiving on record, cool, Environment Canada, global cooling, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, Kelowna, record cold, record-breaking chiller, snow, snowfall, temperature, temperatures, unseasonal cold, unusual cold, unusually cold, weather
Holiday Monday was coldest on record
By Holly Miyasaki, Kelowna.com
Friday, October 16th, 2009 | 5:11 pm
Turkey Day was a record-breaking chiller, according to Environment Canada.
Meteorologist Doug Lundquist says last weekend’s cold temperatures, thanks to clear skies and a northerly flow from the Northwest Territories, were some of the coldest on record.
“We broke records for three days,” says Lundquist.
The previous record for Oct. 10, -7.2 C last year, was beaten by this year’s -10.7 C; the record set last year for Oct. 11, -7.4 C was smashed by -11.6 C this year; and Oct. 12 saw the coldest Thanksgiving on record (Kelowna’s weather records go back to 1962).
And, as predicted, snow fell in the passes and at higher elevations.
The coming week will see temperatures back to normal, or just above normal due to a southerly flow from the Pacific.
This flow is responsible for the current overcast and rainy conditions putting a damper on the Central Okanagan.
And while Environment Canada’s website says sunshine for Monday, Lundquist suggests the beautiful weather might come earlier or later than published on the site.
“I wouldn’t put a lot of hope on sunshine on Monday,” he says. “The system could change. Certainly throughout the period there will be sunny periods.”
European cold snap kills four in Poland
October 16, 2009
Filed under Europe, Poland
Tags: brrr, chilly, climate, climate change, cold, cold October, cold snap, early snow, early snowfall, Europe, freeze, freezing, frost, Global Freeze, global freezing, global warming, October snow, Poland, snow, snowfall, temperature, temperatures, unseasonable early snow storms, unusual cold, unusually cold, weather
European cold snap kills four in Poland
TVNZ
Published: 3:15AM Friday October 16, 2009
A cold snap with unseasonable early snow storms killed at least four Poles, cut off power and heating to hundreds of thousands and caused traffic chaos across central Europe, media reported.
Three people, including a shepherd, froze to death in the mountains of southern Poland due to the severe weather over the past 36 hours, Polish television said. A fourth person died when strong winds blew his car off the road in northern Poland.
Up to a quarter of a million people were still without power, mostly in central and northeastern Poland, after the heavy snowfall and strong winds, local media said. On Wednesday, 700,000 people suffered power cuts.
Tens of thousands of Czechs also lost power and heat supplies as high winds and heavy snow swept the central European country earlier than usual.
Traffic collapsed in north-eastern parts of the country after fallen trees blocked roads and rail tracks, and mountain areas reported about 50-60 cm (20-24 inches) of fresh snow.
Power group CEZ declared a state of emergency in eight districts due to damaged power lines and subsequent outages caused by the weather, and sent out hundreds of workers to repair the damage.
A heating plant malfunction left many of the 40,000 residents in the northern town of Jablonec nad Nisou without heat and the mayor was considering closing schools, news website www.idnes.cz reported.
There was also snowfall in the low mountain ranges of eastern Germany and overnight frost in the west with temperatures falling as low as -8.5 degrees Celsius, the German national weather service said on Thursday. In Germany, temperatures rose to 30.9 C as recently as last week, a record high for October.
